Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 4.327414 5.126699 6.012761 7.065093 8.277895 9.628791 11.244322
2025-06-01 2.990874 4.023213 5.297410 6.972808 9.103131 11.705547 15.107327
2025-06-08 2.180600 3.276577 4.760014 6.884333 9.812041 13.663284 19.062101
2025-06-15 1.785368 2.947655 4.647538 7.259105 11.100343 16.459013 24.392965
2025-06-22 1.426466 2.569787 4.364778 7.302579 11.879954 18.601370 29.032688
2025-06-29 1.154883 2.256426 4.102370 7.301804 12.550000 20.612527 33.649325
2025-07-06 0.944364 1.992440 3.859386 7.271112 13.136152 22.520447 38.260185
2025-07-13 0.869999 1.956721 3.992433 7.876382 14.809967 26.269576 46.054269
2025-07-20 0.762905 1.831552 3.937959 8.133831 15.909448 29.176363 52.736289
2025-07-27 0.679935 1.736149 3.919691 8.446431 17.127748 32.375189 60.150914
2025-08-03 0.581193 1.582634 3.757579 8.454641 17.781245 34.646278 66.161126
2025-08-10 0.475033 1.385287 3.467725 8.161016 17.821030 35.818535 70.333263
2025-08-17 0.377829 1.186948 3.144448 7.760793 17.628472 36.594781 73.958370
2025-08-24 0.317061 1.067181 2.977422 7.671435 18.051607 38.564566 79.947978
2025-08-31 0.266396 0.960657 2.820657 7.578984 18.453670 40.525996 86.080888
2025-09-07 0.246895 0.940930 2.876767 7.988492 19.974987 44.813393 96.985536
2025-09-14 0.214592 0.871319 2.788898 8.036338 20.699753 47.552153 105.060921
2025-09-21 0.185300 0.802243 2.688283 8.035677 21.311061 50.103357 112.945471
2025-09-28 0.159338 0.736028 2.581844 8.002324 21.839224 52.518280 120.722992
2025-10-05 0.156428 0.754633 2.728584 8.661131 24.083929 58.773920 136.822891
2025-10-12 0.143180 0.728966 2.735950 8.941204 25.435149 63.185945 149.356542
2025-10-19 0.132605 0.710770 2.763392 9.281155 26.969027 68.113364 163.295321
2025-10-26 0.116088 0.661312 2.679524 9.290083 27.665927 71.215474 173.520819